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This Review summarizes the natural history studies on multiple sclerosis (MS) that have evaluated prognostic factors. Reassessment of prognostic factors is warranted, as our ability to offer patients a reliable prognosis is limited, yet we rely on this knowledge to appropriately design clinical trials and interpret their results. The selection criteria for studies to review included a geographical referral base, duration of at least 9 years, prospective design, and populations of at least 100 patients with MS. For all forms of MS combined, negative prognostic factors included progressive disease, and disability at 2 and 5 years. In relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS) and secondary progressive MS (SPMS) combined, negative prognostic factors were the onset of progression, a higher relapse rate, greater disability in the first 5 years, a shorter interval to the second relapse, and the involvement of more systems. Additional negative factors include a shorter time to progression in SPMS and a faster rate of disability in the first 2 and 5 years in primary progressive MS (PPMS). Onset of progression, relapse rate and disability in the initial 5 years could be fruitful therapeutic targets; however, longer-term clinical trials will be required to justify these end points.

Original publication

DOI

10.1038/nrneurol.2009.178

Type

Journal article

Journal

Nat Rev Neurol

Publication Date

12/2009

Volume

5

Pages

672 - 682

Keywords

Databases, Factual, Disability Evaluation, Disease Progression, Humans, Multiple Sclerosis, Prognosis